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21-23 MARCH 2017

Final OpenNESS Annual Meeting in Smolenice, Slovakia

Scenarios reflecting possible developments of the EU regulatory frameworks

The OpenNESS work package on Regulatory frameworks and drivers of change (WP2) met on 4 and 5 November in Berlin. The goal was, on the one hand, to present the current state of the different tasks and, on the other hand, to start discussing integrating the policy analysis of EU regulatory frameworks with the scenario work.

From a scenario perspective, EU policies are considered to be amongst the most important drivers for ecosystem change and thus feature prominently in the EU level scenarios developed in WP2. From the discussion in Berlin WP2 developed an expert opinion on how EU policies might develop in four scenarios. Depending on the assumed time frame (2030/2050) this includes: a) developments of already existing or currently developed policy instruments, b) the emergence of new policies, c) the termination of ‘old’ policies, or d) even a completely redesigned policy mix/landscape within and across particular policy fields.

From a policy analysis perspective, such a scenario exercise helps to reflect on different future developments of the EU regulatory frameworks. Questions discussed were, for example, how will the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) look in 2030 and 2050, respectively, in each of the four scenarios? And indeed, will there still be something like a CAP in 2050? How will, for example, environmental policies develop in the future, what (new) policy instruments will constitute the mix of regulatory frameworks in this policy field, and will these policies be crafted at EU level?

The discussion covered the different options of mainstreaming the concept of ecosystem services into policies in the different scenarios.

The meeting provided a promising starting point to synthesise work within WP2. Furthermore, it showed avenues for the integration of WP2 work into other work packages and particularly the case studies.

Photo: WP2 meeting participants © Eeva Primmer